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    CALCULATORiQ™

    CALCULATORiQ Research / Assurance Lab

    CONTAGION & LIQUIDITY RECOVERY SIMULATOR

    Compare service interruption, recovery timing and incremental funding demand after an autonomous financial incident. A 72-hour educational scenario, not a forecast.

    Companion research

    Illustrative CALCULATORiQ scenario model informed by Dax Philbert’s CABIER Consulting research. Numerical assumptions are ours, not CABIER scoring, legal advice, a loss forecast or regulatory certification.

    INCIDENT & CAPACITY

    RECOVERY TIMELINE / HOUR 24

    Incident / 0 hFirst day / 24 h72 h

    UNPREPARED RESPONSE

    Service available

    25.6%

    Cumulative funding demand

    $178.6M

    Funding gap

    $78.6M

    Against $100.0M entered capacity

    GOVERNED RESPONSE

    Service available

    100.0%

    Cumulative funding demand

    $89.3M

    Funding gap

    $0.0M

    Against $150.0M entered capacity

    Unprepared full restoration

    36 h

    Delay + restoration ramp

    Governed full restoration

    18 h

    Containment + verification + ramp

    TRUSTED RESTORATION GATES

    CALCULATORiQ editorial gates, not a CABIER checklist. All four are required for modeled governed resumption.

    Resumption approved after hour 6.

    MODEL, ASSUMPTIONS & LIMITS

    Initial interruption = dependency × (1 − fallback). One illustrative propagation step gives affected fraction = initial + (1 − initial) × initial × coupling. Both pathways share this initial shock. Unprepared service begins linear restoration after its delay. Governed service begins after containment plus verification, only with all gates complete. Each pathway uses the same entered ramp. A slower governed response can perform worse.

    Incremental funding demand = full-interruption hourly draw × interruption, integrated hourly using the trapezoidal rule. Funding gap = max(0, cumulative demand − available capacity). Governed capacity adds the contingency reserve to the buffer. The reserve does not repair service. Displayed demand is limited to 72 hours, not eventual lifetime exposure. Figures are USD millions; demand is not transaction backlog, loss, withdrawals or insolvency probability.

    No actual financial network, customer data or institution is modeled. Inputs are session-only assumptions. CABIER's four decision horizons and evidence-led restoration principle inform the discussion; these equations, gates and presets are CALCULATORiQ's educational adaptation.