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    CALCULATORiQ™
    Part of the Property and Energy Stability Series

    Oil Price Shock Impact Estimator

    Model how oil price shocks transmit to gasoline, transport costs, CPI, and central bank response probability.

    Shock Parameters

    Shocked Price: $104/barrel

    Impact Results

    Gasoline Impact

    +19.1%

    retail price increase

    Transport Costs

    +6.8%

    freight cost change

    CPI Effect

    +4.38pp

    headline inflation

    Duration Factor

    2x

    second-round multiplier

    Central Bank Response Probability

    Rate Hike Likely

    Tightening probability: 75 to 90%