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    CALCULATORiQ™

    SpaceX Retail Downside & Dilution Simulator

    Your position

    $135 is the fixed-price anchor.

    Scenario toggles

    Size the bet — green

    Within a reasonable speculative slice.

    Drawdown by scenario

    ScenarioPrice shockEnding valueLossGain to recover
    Base case (no shock)0.0%$5000$0 (0.0%)0.0%
    Lock-up expiry-15.3%$4235$-765 (-15.3%)18.1%
    Lock-up expiry-15.3%$4235$-765 (-15.3%)18.1%

    Shocks are dampened by the holding window. 30 days realises the full shock; 365 days assumes ~35% partial recovery.

    Founder-pay dilution path (illustrative)

    TrancheCumulative new sharesYour ownership ×
    #1+1.0%0.9901x
    #2+2.0%0.9804x
    #3+3.0%0.9709x
    #4+4.0%0.9615x
    #5+5.0%0.9524x
    #6+6.0%0.9434x
    #7+7.0%0.9346x
    #8+8.0%0.9259x
    #9+9.0%0.9174x
    #10+10.0%0.9091x
    #11+11.0%0.9009x
    #12+12.0%0.8929x

    Simplified model: each of 12 milestone tranches issues ~1% of new shares. Actual dilution depends on share-price performance and the realised tranche schedule.

    Embeddable: /embed/spacex-size-the-bet

    Editorial independence

    Cabier has no commercial relationship to SpaceX, its underwriters, its competitors, or any party with a position in SPCX. This analysis is editorially independent. Figures are compiled from public sources as of June 2026.

    Regulatory disclaimer

    This tool is for educational and illustrative purposes only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a valuation opinion. Outputs depend entirely on user assumptions and do not predict future prices. SpaceX securities involve substantial risk, including the risk of total loss. Consult a licensed financial professional. Figures are estimates compiled from public sources as of June 2026.