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    CALCULATORiQ™
    AI Fragility and Credit Stress

    Model Moat Erosion Simulator

    Capability parity is a schedule, not an event. Set the catch-up rate and the price gap, and read what survives of the premium.

    Competitive assumptions

    9 months
    7 months
    $15.00
    $2.50
    62%
    20%
    1.10
    24 months

    Price and share path

    M1
    $14.9062%91%
    M3
    $14.4659%90%
    M5
    $13.7756%90%
    M7
    $12.9453%89%
    M9
    $12.0349%89%
    M11
    $11.1245%88%
    M13
    $10.2442%87%
    M15
    $9.4339%85%
    M17
    $8.6837%84%
    M19
    $8.0135%83%
    M21
    $7.4133%81%
    M23
    $6.8731%80%

    Bars show incumbent price. Columns to the right are share of paid enterprise inference and gross margin.

    Verdict

    COMMODITISED

    Capability parity arrives inside the horizon and the contestable book leaves on price. What remains is the regulated, resident and contractually locked floor.

    Capability parity

    Month 12

    Share floor reached

    Not reached

    Terminal share

    31%

    Terminal price

    $6.63

    Moat score28 / 100

    Price falls 56% across the horizon in this scenario.

    How to read this

    A moat is not the model. It is the share of workloads that cannot leave. Raise the locked share and the same capability gap produces a durable business.

    Open weights compress price before they compress share, which is why revenue can keep growing while unit economics fail.

    Educational model. Illustrative outputs, not investment advice.