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    CALCULATORiQ™

    Africa Political Risk and FDI Model

    Africa Day 2026
    Composite of FSI, WGI, ratings, expropriation, FX

    Composite political risk score across all fifty-four African states, translated into a risk-adjusted internal rate of return hurdle for foreign direct investment. All inputs editable.

    Inputs

    Risk Assessment

    Composite risk score
    53/100
    Moderate risk
    Risk-adjusted IRR hurdle
    20.4%
    Base WACC 9% + composite-driven premium, sector beta applied
    Required return over horizon
    $203.72M
    On $100.00M over 10 years

    Important Disclaimer

    This tool produces a directional composite risk score from publicly available institutional indicators. It is not investment advice, not legal advice, not a sanctions opinion, and not a substitute for due diligence.

    Foreign direct investment decisions in any jurisdiction require licensed counsel, jurisdiction-specific tax structuring, and contemporaneous sanctions screening. Users are solely responsible for any deployment of capital.

    The AES overlay surfaces a notice only. It does not assess specific sanctions exposure for any named party or transaction.

    Data Sources

    • 1.
      Fragile States Index 2025|Fund for PeaceOpen source
    • 2.
      Worldwide Governance Indicators|World BankOpen source
    • 3.
      World Investment Report 2025|UNCTADOpen source
    • 4.
      Sovereign Ratings|S&P, Moody's, Fitch|2025-2026

    Methodology

    Composite risk equals a weighted blend: thirty percent Fund for Peace Fragile States Index, twenty-five percent World Bank WGI political stability, twenty percent median sovereign credit rating among S&P, Moody's, and Fitch, fifteen percent expropriation history dummy, and ten percent FX convertibility score.

    The risk-adjusted IRR hurdle equals the base weighted average cost of capital plus the composite score multiplied by 0.18, then scaled by sector beta. Extractives carry a higher beta than digital infrastructure or agriculture.

    The model is built to surface relative differences across the continent without applying uniform pessimism to every jurisdiction. Users should override defaults with proprietary research where available.