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    CALCULATORiQ™

    AfCFTA ROI Simulator

    Africa Day 2026
    tralac AfCFTA Tariff Book defaults

    Model the ten-year net present value of intra-African trade under AfCFTA tariff liberalisation, after rules-of-origin compliance cost and corridor-specific non-tariff barrier drag.

    Trade Pair

    Year of full operational uptake of preferences. Ramp begins in 2026.

    ROI Output

    Annual tariff savings
    $2.50M
    5.0 point tariff differential
    Rules-of-origin cost (annual)
    -$900,000
    1.8% of shipment value (UNCTAD median)
    Non-tariff barrier drag (annual)
    -$2.25M
    North African corridor, 4.5%
    10-year NPV at 12%
    -$2.54M
    ROI -5.1% of annual volume

    Data Sources

    • 1.
      AfCFTA Tariff Book 2026|tralacOpen source
    • 2.
      AfCFTA Secretariat|African UnionOpen source
    • 3.
      World Investment Report 2025|UNCTADOpen source
    • 4.
      Africa Trade Report 2024|Afreximbank

    Methodology

    Annual tariff savings equal the trade volume multiplied by the differential between the most-favoured-nation tariff and the AfCFTA preferential rate.

    Rules-of-origin compliance cost is held flat at one point eight percent of shipment value, reflecting the UNCTAD median estimate for documentary, certification, and supplier traceability burden.

    Non-tariff barrier drag is corridor-specific, capturing administrative, customs clearance, and logistics friction at the destination. Southern Africa carries the lowest drag at two point five percent; Central Africa carries the highest at eight percent.

    The ten-year NPV is computed at a twelve percent discount rate with a five-year linear uptake ramp beginning in the user-specified year. Users should override the discount rate and corridor assumptions when proprietary data is available.